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Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Greed Reconsidered

Two threads of thought that might at first blush appear to be unlikely bedfellows converged in my mind yesterday as I scanned the latest news and commentary on the economy. And their convergence drove me to take a look at the current crisis from a more overtly moral perspective than I had previously.

The first thread came from President Obama’s remarks at Georgetown University, in which he made the most direct and wide-ranging moral pronouncements about the crisis that I have heard from him to date (although it’s quite possible that he has done so before and I just missed it). He said that the current recession “was caused by a perfect storm of irresponsibility and poor decision-making that stretched from Wall Street to Washington to Main Street.”

Those are strong words, and they reflect a courage that, in my opinion, is one of the markers of a true leader: the courage to tell people — especially people who have the power to determine one’s continued status as a leader — things they may not want to hear.

By openly pointing to Main Street’s share of the blame, rather than foisting it all on easily demonized targets like overcompensated AIG executives, the President is telling the very rank-and-file voters who elected him that they share in accountability for the crisis. That takes courage, and if anyone can cite an example of a President showing that kind of courage in recent memory, I would certainly like to hear about it.

President Obama went on to recount the widely-reported story of how the crisis all started in the housing market, with people from all levels of the financial food chain — from the everyday homebuyer fudging income figures to take out a so-called “liar’s loan,” all the way up to the investment bankers that bought the securitized mortgages — succumbing to the temptations of easy credit and easy profit.

One could argue that greed, per se, wasn’t necessarily the motivation at all levels of the food chain. For example, one might say that, for homeowners, wishful thinking rather than greed was the driver — wishful thinking that there really was legitimate underlying value behind the run-up in housing prices. Or gullibility in believing all the financial pundits who told us that the housing bubble wasn’t a bubble, and that the increasing prices were driven by a true scarcity in real estate markets.

But after thinking it through, I concluded that to deny the role of greed, even in these scenarios, is to misunderstand and underestimate what greed really is. In everyday life, greed is more subtle than we may consciously realize. It’s not as blatant as the melodramatic, wicked-grin and hands-rubbing-together image that the word greed can evoke. Greed in everyday life isn’t Gordon Gecko greed. Rather, it’s the more subtle lure of gain without pain, the part of us that’s always on the lookout for that one get-rich-quick scheme that might really work, the part of us that might really want to believe that there could be a way, after all, to earn huge profits stuffing envelopes in our spare time.

The second thread of thought came from an article by Al Mohler of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, republished yesterday by ChristianityToday magazine: “A Christian View of the Economic Crisis: Is the Economy Really Driven by Greed?

Mohler prefaces his comments with the qualification that the profit motive driving economic markets is not, in and of itself, a greed-driven motive. Rather, he writes that greed enters the picture “when individuals and groups … seek an unrealistic gain at the expense of others and then use illegitimate means to get what they want.” Among the manifestations of this scenario are the motivations that drive investors, in the midst of an emerging bubble, “to take irrational risks.” And that, of course, is what the current financial crisis is all about.

The comments from both Obama and Mohler are sobering and suggest that many of us who might initially have thought of ourselves as innocent victims rather than causative agents of the crisis might be due for a little soul searching, such as middle-class homeowners who experienced, from the housing bubble, a windfall that is now being counterbalanced by recession-driven losses elsewhere. Markets are collective entities, and their behavior, in the aggregate, can seem impersonal. But we must never forget that they are, ultimately, driven by the decisions and actions of individuals.

As Mohler writes, more individuals, from more walks of life, are participating in investment markets today than at any other time in history. That means more of us should probably take some time out for a period of self-examination of our own accountability for what has happened.
Sphere: Related Content

Monday, March 30, 2009

So Just Who Is This Geithner Dude, Anyway?

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner seems to be in the unfortunate position of being one of the favorite punching bags of conservative pundits. The criticism as a blunder of his first news conference, in the midst of which the stock market tanked, is probably fair. He wasn’t prepared to present details of a rescue plan for the banking industry, and it’s hard to see much excuse for that.

It’s especially hard to see if you look back a bit further into his background. Among his publishing credits are a 2006 lecture, “Hedge Funds and Derivatives and their Implications for the Financial System,” and a 2004 paper “Changes in the Structure of the US Financial System and Implications for Systemic Risk,” in which Geithner wrote that “… the increased size and scope of these entities necessarily exposes them to a wider array of shocks and risks and means that the failure of one of them could have a broader impact than in the past and be considerably more difficult to resolve. The implications for such a failure would almost certainly fall outside the range of experience captured in conventional markets.”

In this remarkable passage we see that, four years before the fateful events of Fall 2008, the President of the New York Fed already seemed to be aware of the unprecedented vulnerabilities in our banking system. At a time when the U.S. was just entering the upward curve of the Great Housing Bubble, Geithner was apparently well aware that our economy could be dwelling in a house of cards.

If Geithner knew this, so too, no doubt, did the rest of the Fed, which begs the question of why preventive action wasn’t taken sooner. Maybe behind the scenes the keepers of the temple were indeed quietly exploring the issue. Perhaps they were alarmed but didn’t see much that could be done without creating a panic that would bring down an economy that, after the collapse of the tech bubble, was being propped up entirely by the housing bubble. Perhaps the Fed, which of course is almost infamous for its cautious approach to public comment, and understandably sensitive to the impact of its statements on the markets, saw delaying the inevitable as the best among options that were all pretty bad. It also seems quite plausible that political pressure from the George W. Bush administration may have played no small role in the acquiesence.

But now, of course, a different administration is in power. And, in view of Geithner’s above-referenced contributions to the financial literature, we can perhaps take comfort in the idea that the new administration has at least placed someone at the helm of the financial system who has a thorough understanding of the issues behind the crisis.

Much has been made recently in the media of the alleged difficulty the administration has experienced in hiring deputies for Geithner. Given the beating he has taken in the media, maybe a good PR guy is among his staffing needs. In case you’re reading this, Mr. Geithner, I’d certainly be interested in entertaining an offer. Sphere: Related Content
 
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